Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle

Staff Writer

The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Paycom Center for Game 1 of a best-of-7 Western Conference, 2nd-round series Tuesday. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Mavericks vs. Thunderodds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Thunder won 3-1

The Thunder swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the 1st round, beating them 97-89 in Game 4 April 29 after closing as 4.5-point favorites. The top-seeded Thunder covered the last 3 games in the series, closing as favorites in each. They went 1-3 O/U as well.

The Thunder ended the regular season 46-36 against the spread (ATS) and are 28-15 ATS at home on the season, including the playoffs.

The Mavericks' 1st-round series ended in 6 games as they beat the 4th-seeded LA Clippers 114-101 Friday as 8.5-point home favorites. Dallas closed as a favorite in 5 of the 6 games, going 3-2 ATS when laying points and 1-0 ATS as an underdog.

The Mavs were 48-34 ATS on the season and are 29-15 ATS on the road, the best record in the NBA.

Mavericks at Thunder odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +136 (bet $100 to win $136) | Thunder -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +3.5 (-110) | Thunder -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 218 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Thunder key injuries

Mavericks

G Luka Doncic (knee) probable

Thunder

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Mavericks at Thunder picks and predictions

Prediction

Thunder 110, Mavericks 104

Moneyline

PASS.

There is some value in taking a moneyline option, but 5 of the Mavs' 6 first-round games ended outside of 3 points. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET THUNDER -3.5 (-110).

The Thunder and Mavs play a similar style of basketball. They both sit top 10 in turnover rate and top 10 in pace. They both sit bottom 10 in offensive rebounding rate. However, the Thunder rank 3rd in offensive rating, while the Mavs sit 8th, and the Thunder sit 3th in defensive rating, whereas Dallas is 18th.

OKC has been strong at home and is 38-27 ATS as a favorite this season. It has covered in 7 of its last 8 games. It should have a major size advantage as well. While Dallas was 4-2 ATS in its 1st-round series, it is 4-4 ATS in its last 8 and played a Clippers team without one of its best players for most of the series in F Kawhi Leonard.

Expect the Thunder to be primed and ready to bring the battle to Dallas after an extended rest. Take THUNDER -3.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 218 (-110).

The Mavs went 3-3 O/U in their 6-game 1st-round series and are 3-6 O/U in their last 9 games. The Thunder went 1-3 O/U in their 1st-round series, while they are 2-6 O/U in their last 8.

In the playoffs, defense has picked up, and the Thunder topped 106 just once in the 1st round despite ranking 3rd in pace among playoff teams. OKC scored sub-100 in 2 of 4 1st-round games yet did that just 3 times all season long. The Mavs went under 102 in 3 of 6 1st-round games.

Considering this total and how each team faired in the 1st round, back UNDER 218 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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