Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions
The Seattle Mariners (20-17) and Minnesota Twins (21-15) meet Thursday as they put a bow on a 4-game series in Minneapolis. The opening pitch in the Target Field matinee is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Mariners vs. Twinsodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-1
Seattle is closing out a 7-game road trip. The Mariners are 9-9 across 18 road games this season.
Minnesota hit 3 HRs in Wednesday 6-3 triumph that saw the Twins lead wire-to-wire. Minnesota has 15 extra-base hits in this series and has slugged a .502 since April 22.
Mariners at Twins projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Gilbert (3-0, 1.69 ERA) is making his 8th start. He has a 0.79 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 48 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-0 win at Houston Astros Saturday
- Career vs. Twins: 2-0, 1.69 ERA (16 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 3 BB, 18 K
- Has held current Twins batters to an aggregate .624 OPS
- Owns a 3.07 ERA on the road since 2022
Lopez (3-2, 4.30 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-1 win vs. Boston Red Sox Saturday
- Career vs. Mariners: 0-1, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 3 BB, 15 K
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Mariners at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-210) | Twins -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Mariners at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Twins 3
Moneyline
The starters have some fade and play to their numbers when looking at actual-vs.-expected analytics. Its an equation favoring Lopez, who also in past match-ups with current Seattle batters has held them to a .584 OPS.
The Seattle bullpen has a 2.64 ERA, which ranks 3rd in MLB. But that figure has been propped up by a .250 batting average on balls in play.
The Mariners have been a swing-and-miss bunch against right-handers. The Twins' run scoring and prevention so far (4.67 runs per game, 4.28 RPG allowed) is mostly supportable when looking an underlying indicators.
BACK THE TWINS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better relative value can be found on the ML.
Over/Under
The Over is 2-1 in this series and 4-1 across the last 5 Seattle-Minnesota meetings.
The Twins have an .858 OPS over their last 16 games, and it's a lean into those numbers that produces just the slightest OVER 7 (+100) lean on a day with a decent breeze expected to help the pitchers.
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